According to the ARD Germany trend for January 2025 conducted by infratest dimap, migration and the economy are important problem issues. "When asked about the most important problems that politicians should address after the election, 37 percent named immigration, a good third named the economy." Source
Immigration is therefore currently an important issue for many people in Germany. Based on data from the European Social Survey for Germany, which was collected as part of Round 11 in the second half of 2023, I therefore tried to find out which factors can create closeness to the AfD and what role the factor "migration" plays. On the basis of the survey data representative for Germany for the 15+ year old population, I was able to evaluate whether it was stated that they gave the AfD their second vote in the last federal election and/or felt closer to this party than other parties in the political spectrum.
Six influencing factors emerged in this analysis (Click on the graphic on the right to see the numerical result in more detail). Closeness to the AfD is associated with distrust in the Bundestag, dissatisfaction with the way democracy works in Germany and an anti-immigration attitude. In addition, the attitude that all people in the world should be treated equally or have the same opportunities in life is not claimed for itself. Closeness to the AfD is also easily promoted by distrust of other people and if one sees oneself as less happy or more unhappy.
The analysis revealed the following influencing factors in particular:
exp(b)
1.8 Intercept
0.7 Trust in parliament (-7.5)
0.8 Satisfaction with democracy (-6.0)
1.4 Against immigration (3.3)
0.8 Equal opportunities for all (3.0)
0.9 Trust in fellow human beings (-2.4)
0.9 Personal happiness (-2.4)
The factors shown correspond to the exp(b) of a logistic regression. Factors > 1 increase the proximity to the AfD, factors < 1 have the opposite effect; no influence at a factor of 1.0. t values are shown in brackets (t=b/s.e = estimate of effect, divided by its standard error). All influencing factors shown are statistically significant. Sample size=2,420, less 136 due to missing values in included variables. Valid N=2,284.
Calculation basis and measurement of the variables in the ESS 11: Logistic regression equation of the following target variables: y=1 if a respondent stated that they gave the AfD their second vote in the last federal election or felt closer to this party than to other parties (y=0 otherwise). Impact factors of a formal quantity known as “odds” are shown, in which the probability of having the value 1 in the target variable is related to its complementary probability. We described this formal quantity above with the term “closeness”. The impact factors in the ESS survey are based on the following question wordings:
— How much do people personally trust the Bundestag (0=not at all, 1, 2, …, 10=completely).
— How satisfied is the person being surveyed - all in all - with the way democracy works in Germany? (0=extremely dissatisfied, 1, 2, …, 10=extremely satisfied)
— How many immigrants who come to Germany from poorer countries outside Europe should be allowed to come and live here (0=allow many, 1=some, 2=a few, 3=allow no one)
— How similar or dissimilar to the person being interviewed would be a person who thinks it is important that all people in the world should be treated equally. Who believes that everyone should have equal opportunities in life. Such a person would be 5=very similar, 4=similar, 3=somewhat similar, 2=just a little bit similar, 1=not similar, 0=not similar at all (assigned number sequence reversed from original version).
— Whether the person being interviewed believes that most people can be trusted, or that one cannot be too careful when dealing with other people? (0=one cannot be too careful, …, 1, 2, 3, …, 10=most people can be trusted.)
— What the person being interviewed would say, all things considered, how happy he/she is (0=extremely unhappy, 1, 2, 3, …., 10=extremely happy)
Weighting variable "anweight" used. Explanatory power of logistic regression: McFadden’s Pseudo-R2=0.289
References:
• The German sub-study of the ESS is managed by GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences. Data collection by Verian (previously Kantar Public). The data collection mode is face-to-face and took place from May 9th to December 21st, 2023.
• European Social Survey European Research Infrastructure (ESS ERIC)(2023). ESS11– integrated file, edition 2.0. [Data set]. Sikt - Norwegian Agency for Shared Services in Education and Research. doi:10.21338/ess11e02_0 (Production date of file is November 20th, 2024)
• European Social Survey (2022). ESS Round 11 Source Questionnaire. London: ESS ERIC Headquarters c/o City, University of London